FC Augsburg 2-2 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face VfL Bochum.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga (matchday 3). Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Augsburg have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for FC Augsburg, 1.00 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, VfL Bochum edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended FC Augsburg 2–3 VfL Bochum — a VfL Bochum win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 64% versus VfL Bochum 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 58% | VfL Bochum 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.45 xG and VfL Bochum 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.043 / defence 1.218 | VfL Bochum attack 0.759 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.846 / away 1.452. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. VfL Bochum's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfL Bochum's projected output up. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 36 games and VfL Bochum's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 61% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.63 | Draw 5.08 | VfL Bochum 5.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.45 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (FC Augsburg 36 games, VfL Bochum 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 3 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 61% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG FC Augsburg 2.45 / VfL Bochum 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.043 / def 1.218 | VfL Bochum attack 0.759 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.846 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
VfL Bochum xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
FC Augsburg 2 - 2 VfL Bochum.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 3) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 61% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.04) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.76x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 36 games and VfL Bochum's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
61%
1.63
20%
5.08
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.80
1.34
VfL Bochum xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
9%
11.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
2%
61.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.34 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 8D 19L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 10W 6D 20L from 36 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.00 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 18 home games (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 3D 13L from their last 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.14 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
FC Augsburg (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 10W 6D 20L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.28 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, VfL Bochum 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Augsburg) and 56% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 39% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 56% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 83% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 3, as FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.45 xG and VfL Bochum 1.34 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against VfL Bochum attack 0.76 / defence 1.27, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 61% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 19%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, VfL Bochum 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 0.97 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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