FC Augsburg 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 50%, yet the head-to-head data favours SC Freiburg — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
FC Augsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.80 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, SC Freiburg have the stronger record — 5 wins to FC Augsburg's 1, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended FC Augsburg 1–3 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 60% versus SC Freiburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | SC Freiburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.744 / defence 0.807 | SC Freiburg attack 0.732 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.381. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. SC Freiburg's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 57 games and SC Freiburg's last 57.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.02 | Draw 3.36 | SC Freiburg 4.83. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG FC Augsburg 1.40 / SC Freiburg 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.744 / def 0.807 | SC Freiburg attack 0.732 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.82
SC Freiburg xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 50% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.73x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 57 games and SC Freiburg's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.36
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.22
0.82
SC Freiburg xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.82 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 16D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.42 PPG from 57 outings (23W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.42 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across their last 28 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 4D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.39 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
FC Augsburg (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 23W 12D 22L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.50 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.11 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won FC Augsburg 0-4 SC Freiburg on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: FC Augsburg 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 64%, SC Freiburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Augsburg) and 61% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 39% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Augsburg's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.82 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 0.81 against SC Freiburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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