FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Dortmund, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for FC Augsburg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 67% versus Borussia Dortmund 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 67% | Borussia Dortmund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.13 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.919 / defence 1.056 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.019 / defence 0.651. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.651 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 FC Augsburg games / 42 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 28% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Dortmund 2.22. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 28% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Augsburg 1.13 / Borussia Dortmund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.919 / def 1.056 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.019 / def 0.651 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 28% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 6W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.92) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.71
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
6%
15.42
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.48 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 10D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.17 PPG from 42 outings (27W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.90 points per game from 21 outings (11W 7D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.52 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.90 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, Borussia Dortmund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Augsburg) and 52% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 52% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.