FC Augsburg 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 50% versus Bayer Leverkusen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 47% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.16 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.781 / defence 1.291 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.890 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.171. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 FC Augsburg games / 36 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 29% | Draw 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: FC Augsburg 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 29% | Draw 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Augsburg 1.16 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.781 / def 1.291 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.890 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bayer Leverkusen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 1 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 29% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.89x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
29%
3.45
33%
2.99
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.51
1.34
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.34 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 10W 7D 19L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 15W 11D 10L from 36 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 7D 19L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 15W 11D 10L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.22 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 39% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 39%; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 39% of games; Bayer Leverkusen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 39% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 39% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 1-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.16 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.29 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 29% | Draw 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.