Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 83% and VfB Stuttgart 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 65% | VfB Stuttgart 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.196 / defence 0.989 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.031 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.413. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 23 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 26%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 3.85. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 90% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 / VfB Stuttgart 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.196 / def 0.989 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.031 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.44
VfB Stuttgart xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 50% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.20) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.22
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.46
1.44
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
4%
28.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.44 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 9D 3L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 6W 5D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.91 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 9D 3L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.09 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 91%, VfB Stuttgart at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 64% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, as Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.44 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.03 / defence 1.41, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 26%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 65%, VfB Stuttgart 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.