Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 44%, yet in-form FSV Mainz 05 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FSV Mainz 05 — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and FSV Mainz 05 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | FSV Mainz 05 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.881 / defence 0.847 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.027 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.252. Data: 65 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 65 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 26%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | FSV Mainz 05 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FSV Mainz 05 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 / FSV Mainz 05 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.881 / def 0.847 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.027 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FSV Mainz 05 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 44% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 2 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.88x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.27
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.57
1.09
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.09 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 21W 22D 22L from 65 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 24L across 65 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.31 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 11W 12D 9L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 9W 5D 18L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.55 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 22D 22L in their last 65 games (1.31 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 25W 16D 24L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.41 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 62%, FSV Mainz 05 at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 62% (FSV Mainz 05).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 69% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 62% of FSV Mainz 05's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FSV Mainz 05 3-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.09 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 26%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 51%, FSV Mainz 05 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.31 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.