Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face SC Freiburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to Borussia-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia-Park this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. SC Freiburg's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Freiburg have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% and SC Freiburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | SC Freiburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG and SC Freiburg 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.920 / defence 1.514 | SC Freiburg attack 1.033 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.540. Data: 39 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 39 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 57%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.17 | Draw 5.26 | SC Freiburg 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.94 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 71% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 / SC Freiburg 2.41 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.920 / def 1.514 | SC Freiburg attack 1.033 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.41
SC Freiburg xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 24% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 57% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
Record (8 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 4 | SC Freiburg 4W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 2.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
24%
4.21
19%
5.22
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.94
2.41
SC Freiburg xG
4.21
24%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
9%
11.12
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
2%
46.81
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.41 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 8D 18L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg's form line: 18W 8D 13L from 39 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.21 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 8W 4D 7L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.32 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%, SC Freiburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 58% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 42%; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 26% of games; SC Freiburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 42% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 58% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 6, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG and SC Freiburg 2.41 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.92 / defence 1.51 against SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 57%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, SC Freiburg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.21 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.