Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FSV Mainz 05 travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and FSV Mainz 05 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | FSV Mainz 05 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.211 / defence 0.842 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.941 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.628. Data: 38 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 38 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 25%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | FSV Mainz 05 4.00. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% | FSV Mainz 05 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 / FSV Mainz 05 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.211 / def 0.842 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.941 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.628 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FSV Mainz 05 xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 51% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 2 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.21x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.08
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.19
1.29
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
4%
26.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.29 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 11D 13L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.39 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FSV Mainz 05's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.42 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.79 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
6
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 74%, FSV Mainz 05 at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 68% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 74% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 68% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.29 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 25%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, FSV Mainz 05 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.