Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 22 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 4D 1L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.40 for Borussia Dortmund — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Borussia Dortmund in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 76% and Borussia Dortmund 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | Borussia Dortmund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.023 / defence 1.005 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.072 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.440. Data: 17 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 17 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 41%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 78% | Borussia Dortmund 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 / Borussia Dortmund 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.023 / def 1.005 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.072 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 January 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.07x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.62
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.91
1.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.55 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 7W 7D 3L from 17 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 6L across 17 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.71 for Borussia Dortmund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 4W 4D 1L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 5W 1D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.94 scored and 1.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 7W 7D 3L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.78 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 67% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 56% (Borussia Dortmund).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 56% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Borussia Dortmund 4-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.55 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 41%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.65 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.