Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 39%, yet in-form Eintracht Frankfurt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's home record at Signal-Iduna-Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Eintracht Frankfurt are 0.70 PPG clear of Borussia Dortmund in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 62% and Eintracht Frankfurt 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 73% | Eintracht Frankfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.77 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.203 / defence 1.081 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.153 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.353. Data: 26 Borussia Dortmund games / 26 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 39% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Frankfurt (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 39% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.77 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.203 / def 1.081 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.153 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 39% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.20) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.15x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
39%
2.55
25%
4.02
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.45
1.69
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.69 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 26 games, going 13W 4D 9L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (12W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Borussia Dortmund against 1.81 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.04 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 85%.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 13W 4D 9L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 12W 11D 3L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.92 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 4-0 on 22 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Borussia Dortmund and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.77 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.69 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.20 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.15 / defence 1.20, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 39% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 73%, Eintracht Frankfurt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.65 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.