Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's home record at Signal-Iduna-Park: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal-Iduna-Park than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Dortmund's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 71% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 79% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.34 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.341 / defence 1.146 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.938 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.749 / away 1.379. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Borussia Dortmund games / 56 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 56% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 56% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.34 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.341 / def 1.146 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.938 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.749 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Dortmund 6 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 56% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.34) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.94x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.57
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.82
1.48
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
10%
10.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
2%
45.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.48 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 56 games, going 35W 5D 16L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.34 PPG from 56 outings (20W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 20W 2D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.68 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 71%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 35W 5D 16L in their last 56 games (1.96 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.21 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Borussia Dortmund, 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Borussia Dortmund and 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 6-0 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.34 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.34 / defence 1.15 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 56% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 23%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 79%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.