Borussia Dortmund 2-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Borussia Dortmund welcome 1. FC Köln to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Signal-Iduna-Park this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, 1. FC Köln in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 70% and 1. FC Köln 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 77% | 1. FC Köln 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.98 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.491 / defence 1.123 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.888 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.227. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — their λ of 2.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Borussia Dortmund games / 43 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Köln 11%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | 1. FC Köln 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.98 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 90% | 1. FC Köln 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Köln 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 68% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.98 / 1. FC Köln 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.491 / def 1.123 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.888 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.98
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.22
1. FC Köln xG
68%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 0 1. FC Köln.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 72% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.98. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
72%
1.40
17%
5.84
11%
8.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.98
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.21
1.22
1. FC Köln xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
8.87
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
5%
19.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
1%
174.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.22 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 27W 4D 12L from 43 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 18L across 43 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 15W 2D 4L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 6W 6D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.21 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 4D 12L in their last 43 games (1.98 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.24 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 71%, 1. FC Köln 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Borussia Dortmund and 57% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 57% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 57% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Köln 2-0 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.98 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.22 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. 1. FC Köln landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.49 / defence 1.12 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Köln 11%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 77%, 1. FC Köln 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.