Bayer Leverkusen 7-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at BayArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 0D 7L from 7 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 3.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Bayer Leverkusen's favour (1.70 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 62% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 62% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.48 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.899 / defence 1.162 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.714 / defence 1.599. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.256. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.599 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Bayer Leverkusen games / 13 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 67% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 67% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.48 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.899 / def 1.162 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.714 / def 1.599 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Bayer Leverkusen 7 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 67% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 0.90x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 2.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.71x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.85
12%
8.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.52
1.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
8.07
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
8%
11.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
1%
95.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.04 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 7W 3D 3L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 0W 1D 12L from 13 games, 0.08 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 1.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.85 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 12L in their last 13 (0.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.50 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 33%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Bayer Leverkusen and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 7-1 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.48 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.71 / defence 1.60, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 67% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 62%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 3.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.