Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig at BayArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RB Leipzig are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 3 for RB Leipzig and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 66% and RB Leipzig 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 60% | RB Leipzig 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 xG and RB Leipzig 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.206 / defence 0.940 | RB Leipzig attack 1.076 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.497. Data: 65 Bayer Leverkusen games / 65 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 41% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 35%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Bayer Leverkusen dominate the H2H record, yet RB Leipzig are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 41% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 / RB Leipzig 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.206 / def 0.940 | RB Leipzig attack 1.076 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
RB Leipzig xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen 4 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 41% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
Record (9 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 5W | Draws 1 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.11
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.17
1.51
RB Leipzig xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.51 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 65 games, going 35W 19D 11L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.74 PPG from 65 outings (32W 17D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.91 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 18W 7D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.50 points per game from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.77 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 35W 19D 11L in their last 65 games (1.91 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 32W 17D 16L in their last 65 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or RB Leipzig away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.91 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 62%, RB Leipzig 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 53% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; RB Leipzig in 41%; RB Leipzig in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 47% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 53% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 4-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 xG and RB Leipzig 1.51 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against RB Leipzig attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 41% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 35%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 60%, RB Leipzig 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.