Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 December 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bayer Leverkusen have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 56% and Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 71% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.288 / defence 0.830 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.069 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.875 / away 1.347. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Bayer Leverkusen games / 48 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.288 / def 0.830 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.069 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.875 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (4 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 2W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.29x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.50
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.39
1.20
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
2%
47.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.20 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 25W 11D 12L from 48 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 13L across 48 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.79 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 14W 4D 6L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.71 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 25W 11D 12L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 18W 17D 13L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.92 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 8, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 62%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bayer Leverkusen and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.29 / defence 0.83 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 71%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.