Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Borussia Dortmund to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bayer Leverkusen at BayArena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Bayer Leverkusen) versus 2.20 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bayer Leverkusen, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 61% and Borussia Dortmund 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 67% | Borussia Dortmund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.105 / defence 0.723 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.130 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.460. Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Bayer Leverkusen games / 66 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 24%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Dortmund 4.17. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 / Borussia Dortmund 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.105 / def 0.723 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.130 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 4 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 50% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (7 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 2W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 3W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.10x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.94
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
4%
24.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.19 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 47W 17D 2L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 33W 15D 18L from 66 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Dortmund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 2.39 PPG from 33 outings (24W 7D 2L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 13W 9D 11L from 33 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.39 conceded. Borussia Dortmund's attacking output running into Bayer Leverkusen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 65%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 47W 17D 2L in their last 66 games (2.39 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 33W 15D 18L in their last 66 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.39 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 58%, Borussia Dortmund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Bayer Leverkusen and 61% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 at BayArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.72 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 24%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 67%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.73. Form was overturned, with Borussia Dortmund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.