Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at SchücoArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1W 6D 3L at SchücoArena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 0D 9L from 9 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 3.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Arminia Bielefeld. A 0.70 PPG lead over SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1.20 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 50% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 33% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 2.20 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.764 / defence 1.034 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.629 / defence 1.703. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.323. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 2.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.703 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Arminia Bielefeld games / 18 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 66% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Arminia Bielefeld (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 66% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 2.20 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.764 / def 1.034 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.629 / def 1.703 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
0.86
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Arminia Bielefeld 2 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 66% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.76x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.63x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.49
12%
8.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.06
0.86
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
8.58
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
77.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 0.86 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 8D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.33 PPG from 18 outings (1W 3D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 1W 5D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.00 points per game from 9 outings (0W 0D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arminia Bielefeld come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.72 scored and 2.72 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 8D 7L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 3D 14L in their last 18 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 0.89 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Arminia Bielefeld and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 33% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 19, as Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 2.20 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.86 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.76 / defence 1.03 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.63 / defence 1.70, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 66% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 33%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arminia Bielefeld arrived the stronger side — 0.94 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.