Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2020, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 4W 0D 1L from 5 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Borussia Dortmund 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Borussia Dortmund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.08 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.830 / defence 1.338 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.704 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.321. Data: 5 Arminia Bielefeld games / 5 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 36% | Borussia Dortmund 36%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Borussia Dortmund 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Borussia Dortmund 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 36% | Borussia Dortmund 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.08 / Borussia Dortmund 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.830 / def 1.338 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.704 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Borussia Dortmund xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2020 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 28% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.83x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
28%
3.59
36%
2.78
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.24 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.60 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 0%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Arminia Bielefeld 60% BTTS, Borussia Dortmund 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 60% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 0% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.08 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.83 / defence 1.34 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.70 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 36% | Borussia Dortmund 36%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, Borussia Dortmund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Arminia Bielefeld managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.