Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld host 1899 Hoffenheim at SchücoArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arminia Bielefeld at 1.20 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 40% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 40% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.09 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.688 / defence 0.814 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.178 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.334. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Arminia Bielefeld games / 38 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 36% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 36% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.09 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.688 / def 0.814 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.178 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.28
1899 Hoffenheim xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 28% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (2 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 2 | 1899 Hoffenheim 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.69) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
28%
3.63
36%
2.81
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.36
1.28
1899 Hoffenheim xG
3.63
28%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.03
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.28 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 11D 18L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arminia Bielefeld on 1.00 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.58 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.16 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
1
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 32%, 1899 Hoffenheim 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 63% (1899 Hoffenheim).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 63% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arminia Bielefeld's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 0-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.09 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.28 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.1 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.69 / defence 0.81 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 36% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.00 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.