1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host Werder Bremen at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PreZero Arena, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1899 Hoffenheim at 1.40 PPG versus Werder Bremen's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0 for Werder Bremen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2021, ended 4–0 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 57% and Werder Bremen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 64% | Werder Bremen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72 xG and Werder Bremen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.123 / defence 0.843 | Werder Bremen attack 1.016 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.395. Data: 42 1899 Hoffenheim games / 8 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 26%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Werder Bremen 3.85. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72 / Werder Bremen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.123 / def 0.843 | Werder Bremen attack 1.016 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Werder Bremen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 October 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 49% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen?
Record (2 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.04
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.91
1.19
Werder Bremen xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
5%
21.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.19 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1899 Hoffenheim's recent record stands at 17W 9D 16L from 42 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 9L across 42 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.43 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1899 Hoffenheim have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 12W 5D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 9D 16L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 21W 12D 9L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.81 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 7, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 62%, Werder Bremen at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 81% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 71% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 81% of Werder Bremen's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72 xG and Werder Bremen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Werder Bremen attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 26%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 64%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.43 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.