1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 5W 2D 3L at PreZero Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.30 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SC Freiburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 3–4 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 58% versus SC Freiburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 68% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.67 xG and SC Freiburg 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.345 / defence 0.954 | SC Freiburg attack 1.253 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.457. 1899 Hoffenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Freiburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 1899 Hoffenheim games / 40 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 37% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 40%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | SC Freiburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 37% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.67 / SC Freiburg 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.345 / def 0.954 | SC Freiburg attack 1.253 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.74
SC Freiburg xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 37% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.34) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
37%
2.68
23%
4.43
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.42
1.74
SC Freiburg xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
7%
15.30
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.74 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 7D 16L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg's form line: 19W 11D 10L from 40 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.45 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — 1899 Hoffenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 10W 5D 5L from 20 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.70 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 60%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 19W 11D 10L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.85 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.75 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 65%, SC Freiburg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 60% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 55% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 60% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1899 Hoffenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.67 xG and SC Freiburg 1.74 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.34 / defence 0.95 against SC Freiburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 37% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 40%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 68%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.45 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.