1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees FC Augsburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 December 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 3D 4L from 9 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1W 1D 2L at PreZero Arena — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (1899 Hoffenheim) versus 1.33 (FC Augsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 89% and FC Augsburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | FC Augsburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.097 / defence 1.249 | FC Augsburg attack 0.782 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.634. Data: 9 1899 Hoffenheim games / 9 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 33% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 37%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | FC Augsburg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 75% | FC Augsburg 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Monday 7 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 33% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 / FC Augsburg 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.097 / def 1.249 | FC Augsburg attack 0.782 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.634 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.60
FC Augsburg xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 7 December 2020 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 33% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.10) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.29
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.09
1.60
FC Augsburg xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
7%
15.09
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.60 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1899 Hoffenheim
4
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 75%, FC Augsburg at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 50% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 75% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 1.60 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.10 / defence 1.25 against FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 33% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 37%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, FC Augsburg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.