1. FC Köln 1-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Mönchengladbach — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.50 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.87 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.009 / defence 1.315 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.674 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.538. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 1. FC Köln games / 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 29% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.00. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (0.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 29% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.87 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.009 / def 1.315 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.674 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 October 2020 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln 1 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 46% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (1.01) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.50
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.23
1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
4%
25.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.36 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat 1. FC Köln 1-3 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.87 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.01 / defence 1.31 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 29% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Mönchengladbach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 50%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.