SV Wehen 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to BRITA-Arena to face SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SV Wehen (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SV Wehen at BRITA-Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SV Wehen are significantly better at BRITA-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Holstein Kiel have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Holstein Kiel are 1.70 PPG clear of SV Wehen in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Wehen lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 58% versus Holstein Kiel 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 46% | Holstein Kiel 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 0.77 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.787 / defence 1.330 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.259 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.411. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Holstein Kiel's defence strength of 0.650 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Holstein Kiel have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 2.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 SV Wehen games / 65 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 10% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 73%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 10.00 | Draw 5.88 | Holstein Kiel 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: SV Wehen 70% | Holstein Kiel 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 10% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 49% | xG SV Wehen 0.77 / Holstein Kiel 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.787 / def 1.330 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.259 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
2.36
Holstein Kiel xG
49%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
SV Wehen 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 10% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 73% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 0W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.79) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.26x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.36.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
10%
9.96
17%
5.73
73%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
3.13
2.36
Holstein Kiel xG
9.96
10%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
1.38
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
9%
10.62
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
1%
105.80
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for SV Wehen and 2.36 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Wehen come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 8D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (20W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of SV Wehen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Wehen's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 2.25 points per game from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Wehen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 2.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 20W 4D 9L in their last 33 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.25 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 2.25 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when SV Wehen 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 62%, Holstein Kiel 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SV Wehen) and 50% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 44% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SV Wehen's recent games and 50% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out SV Wehen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SV Wehen 0-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 0.77 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.36 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Holstein Kiel landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.26 / defence 0.65, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 10% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 73%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 46%, Holstein Kiel 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.