SV Sandhausen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Sandhausen face SC Paderborn 07.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald plays host to SV Sandhausen versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Sandhausen have posted 1W 3D 6L at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, SC Paderborn 07 are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Sandhausen lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Sandhausen half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 61% versus SC Paderborn 07 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 55% | SC Paderborn 07 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.89 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.631 / defence 1.521 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.879 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.304. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 SV Sandhausen games / 62 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 58%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 1.72. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 40% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.89 / SC Paderborn 07 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.631 / def 1.521 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.879 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.74
SC Paderborn 07 xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Sandhausen 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 19% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.63) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.88x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
19%
5.26
23%
4.26
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.63
1.74
SC Paderborn 07 xG
5.26
19%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
17%
5.71
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
30.08
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.74 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Sandhausen's recent record stands at 16W 17D 29L from 62 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 19L across 62 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Sandhausen have managed 7W 8D 15L from 30 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.77 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 16W 17D 29L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.97 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.57 PPG.
Have SV Sandhausen or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Sandhausen have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
2
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 57%, SC Paderborn 07 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SV Sandhausen) and 60% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 33% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SV Sandhausen's games and 53% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 60% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 29, as SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.89 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SV Sandhausen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.63 / defence 1.52 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 58%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 55%, SC Paderborn 07 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.