SV Sandhausen 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
SV Sandhausen at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 0.90 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to SSV Jahn Regensburg, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 62% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 56% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.12 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.711 / defence 1.541 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.814 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.283. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 SV Sandhausen games / 63 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 27% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.04. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: SV Sandhausen 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 27% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.12 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.711 / def 1.541 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.814 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.61
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SV Sandhausen 2 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 27% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Sandhausen's attack at 0.71x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.81x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
27%
3.76
25%
4.04
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.73
1.61
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
18.81
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.61 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 18D 29L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 17W 17D 29L from 63 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.08 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 0.97 PPG from 31 outings (7W 9D 15L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 6D 18L from 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.24 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 16W 18D 29L in their last 63 games (1.05 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 17W 17D 29L in their last 63 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SV Sandhausen's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.97 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 58%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (SV Sandhausen) and 45% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 32% of games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 39% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 45% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Sandhausen defy the odds to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.12 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SV Sandhausen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.71 / defence 1.54 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 27% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SV Sandhausen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 56%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.05 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.