SV Sandhausen 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as SV Sandhausen welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.69 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.708 / away 1.496. Data: 0 SV Sandhausen games / 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 14% | Draw 34% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 52%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 7.14 | Draw 2.94 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.92. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 14% | Draw 34% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.69 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.708 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 14% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 52% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.85) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
14%
7.08
34%
2.97
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.15
1.46
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
7.08
14%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
3%
30.56
26%
3.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.46 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Pre-Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SV Sandhausen's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 SV Sandhausen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Sandhausen 0-2 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.69 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.46 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 14% | Draw 34% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 52%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.