SV Elversberg 1-3 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus SSV Ulm 1846 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SV Elversberg are significantly better at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde than their overall form suggests.
SSV Ulm 1846 (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SSV Ulm 1846 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. SV Elversberg's 1.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SSV Ulm 1846's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
SSV Ulm 1846 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 40% versus SSV Ulm 1846 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 60% | SSV Ulm 1846 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.65 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.159 / defence 0.911 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.589 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.402. Data: 39 SV Elversberg games / 5 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 56% | Draw 29% | SSV Ulm 1846 14%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | SSV Ulm 1846 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 56% | Draw 29% | SSV Ulm 1846 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG SV Elversberg 1.65 / SSV Ulm 1846 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.159 / def 0.911 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.589 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
0.75
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
SV Elversberg 1 - 3 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 56% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — SSV Ulm 1846's attack (0.59x) against SV Elversberg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
56%
1.77
29%
3.43
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.40
0.75
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
35.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 0.75 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Ulm 1846, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Ulm 1846 heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Ulm 1846 in 60%.
Defensively: SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
SSV Ulm 1846
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have SV Elversberg or SSV Ulm 1846 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, SSV Ulm 1846 in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
1
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 0, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 0-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 40%, SSV Ulm 1846 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SV Elversberg and 60% for SSV Ulm 1846. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; SV Elversberg have failed to score in 40% of games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 60% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SV Elversberg's matches and 60% of SSV Ulm 1846's.
Do SV Elversberg and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Ulm 1846 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Ulm 1846 beat SV Elversberg 1-3 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.65 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.75 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.16 / defence 0.91 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.59 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 56% | Draw 29% | SSV Ulm 1846 14%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a SSV Ulm 1846 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 60%, SSV Ulm 1846 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.20. Form was overturned, with SSV Ulm 1846 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Elversberg shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Ulm 1846 scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.