SSV Ulm 1846 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Donaustadion plays host to SSV Ulm 1846 versus Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 27 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SSV Ulm 1846 have collected 0.67 PPG across 6 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SSV Ulm 1846 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 games at Donaustadion this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Donaustadion this season.

Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.67 for SSV Ulm 1846, 0.80 for Eintracht Braunschweig — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading

SSV Ulm 1846 half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Ulm 1846 67% and Eintracht Braunschweig 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Ulm 1846 67% | Eintracht Braunschweig 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.80 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.793 / defence 1.216 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.758 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.475. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing SSV Ulm 1846's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 40 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 46% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.70. SSV Ulm 1846 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SSV Ulm 1846 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 100% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% BTTS from recent games.

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