SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% and SV Darmstadt 98 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.63 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.928 / defence 1.192 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.055 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.279. Data: 63 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 63 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.63 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.928 / def 1.192 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.055 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.61
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 37% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (5 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.93) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.80
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.24
1.61
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.61 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 18W 15D 30L from 63 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 19L across 63 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.10 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 10W 9D 12L from 31 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 6W 12D 13L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.68 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 in 63%.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 20D 19L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.26 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 61%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 71% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 77% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 71% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out SV Darmstadt 98 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.63 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.10 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.