SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Nürnberg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% and 1. FC Nürnberg 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | 1. FC Nürnberg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.903 / defence 1.037 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.825 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.345. Data: 18 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 52 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% | 1. FC Nürnberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.903 / def 1.037 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.825 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.15
1. FC Nürnberg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 40% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.90x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.69
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.47
1.15
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.15 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 7W 17D 28L from 52 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 20L across 52 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 6W 10D 10L from 26 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 8W 9D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 17D 28L in their last 52 games (0.73 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.08 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, 1. FC Nürnberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 54% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 31%; 1. FC Nürnberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 54% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 54% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, 1. FC Nürnberg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.