SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Magdeburg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Magdeburg — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–0 1. FC Magdeburg — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% and 1. FC Magdeburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | 1. FC Magdeburg 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while 1. FC Magdeburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.156 / defence 0.676 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.918 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.462. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have a tight defence (rating 0.676), which is pulling 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output down. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 49 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 49.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 | Draw 4.38 | 1. FC Magdeburg 5.43. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.156 / def 0.676 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.918 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
1. FC Magdeburg xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 59% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 49 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.38
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.73
0.91
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
33.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.91 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 18W 14D 17L from 49 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 21L across 49 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 14W 8D 3L from their last 25 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 8W 5D 12L across their last 25 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 63%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 64% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.16 / defence 0.68 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%, 1. FC Magdeburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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