SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Magdeburg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, 1. FC Magdeburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% and 1. FC Magdeburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | 1. FC Magdeburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.156 / defence 0.676 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.918 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.462. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 0.676 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 49 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Magdeburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.156 / def 0.676 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.918 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
1. FC Magdeburg xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 59% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.38
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.73
0.91
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
33.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.91 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 18W 14D 17L from 49 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 21L across 49 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 14W 8D 3L from 25 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 8W 5D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 63%.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 64% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.91 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.16 / defence 0.68 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%, 1. FC Magdeburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.