SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Karlsruher SC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Paderborn 07 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Karlsruher SC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and Karlsruher SC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 74% | Karlsruher SC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.27 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.913 / defence 1.276 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.020 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.347. Data: 62 SC Paderborn 07 games / 62 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 49%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Karlsruher SC 2.04. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
SC Paderborn 07 dominate the H2H record, yet Karlsruher SC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karlsruher SC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Karlsruher SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.27 / Karlsruher SC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.913 / def 1.276 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.020 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Karlsruher SC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 27% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC?
Record (5 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 4W | Draws 1 | Karlsruher SC 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.91x the league average against Karlsruher SC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (1.02x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.17
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.02
1.75
Karlsruher SC xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
5%
21.03
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.75 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 27W 13D 22L from 62 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 22L across 62 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.42 for Karlsruher SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 16W 3D 11L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karlsruher SC's away record stands at 7W 8D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karlsruher SC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.82 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Karlsruher SC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 13D 22L in their last 62 games (1.52 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 24W 16D 22L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Karlsruher SC away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.70 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 5-0 on 17 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, Karlsruher SC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 60%, Karlsruher SC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SC Paderborn 07 and 57% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karlsruher SC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 57% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 29, as SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.27 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 49%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, Karlsruher SC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.52 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.