SC Paderborn 07 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.70 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of SC Paderborn 07: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SC Paderborn 07 and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 69% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 68% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.02 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.190 / defence 1.169 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.063 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.270. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 62 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 62.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.11 | Draw 4.36 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.37. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (SC Paderborn 07 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.02 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.190 / def 1.169 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.063 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 47% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.19x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 62 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.36
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.60
1.58
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
4%
25.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.58 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 27W 16D 19L from 62 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 16L across 62 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.56 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 14W 5D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 15W 9D 6L across their last 30 away games, a 1.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.92 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 30W 16D 16L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.57 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortuna Düsseldorf have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won SC Paderborn 07 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 63%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SC Paderborn 07 and 63% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 63% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 63% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 80% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.02 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.19 / defence 1.17 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 68%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.56 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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