SC Paderborn 07 3-3 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Erzgebirge AUE fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Erzgebirge AUE travel to Benteler-Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Benteler-Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Erzgebirge AUE away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 0.80 PPG, Erzgebirge AUE 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for Erzgebirge AUE and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and Erzgebirge AUE 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | Erzgebirge AUE 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.859 / defence 1.198 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.682 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.448. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.587 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 SC Paderborn 07 games / 23 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 32% | Erzgebirge AUE 26%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Erzgebirge AUE 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Erzgebirge AUE 70% BTTS from recent games.

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