SC Paderborn 07 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Benteler-Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 30 July 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 0.80 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.985 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.705 / away 1.217. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 1 1. FC Nürnberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 21% | Draw 38% | 1. FC Nürnberg 41%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.76 | Draw 2.63 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 21% | Draw 38% | 1. FC Nürnberg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG SC Paderborn 07 0.80 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.985 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.705 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
1. FC Nürnberg xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 21% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 41% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.85x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
21%
4.80
38%
2.64
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
1.99
1.19
1. FC Nürnberg xG
4.80
21%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.19 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 0%.
Defensively: SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 0% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 0% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 2, as SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 0.80 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 21% | Draw 38% | 1. FC Nürnberg 41%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 0%, 1. FC Nürnberg 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.00 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Paderborn 07 scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.