SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 23 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SSV Jahn Regensburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Holstein Kiel in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 0 for Holstein Kiel and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Jahn Regensburg 58% and Holstein Kiel 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 74% | Holstein Kiel 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.199 / defence 1.331 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.788 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.398. Data: 19 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 19 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 39% | Draw 28% | Holstein Kiel 32%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Holstein Kiel 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 80% | Holstein Kiel 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 39% | Draw 28% | Holstein Kiel 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 / Holstein Kiel 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.199 / def 1.331 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.788 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Holstein Kiel xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 39% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 1.20x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (0.79x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.51
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.47
Holstein Kiel xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.47 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 9W 4D 6L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Holstein Kiel.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 5D 3L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.26 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 63%.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.56 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 89% for Holstein Kiel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 67% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 89% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 89% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 67% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.20 / defence 1.33 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 39% | Draw 28% | Holstein Kiel 32%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 74%, Holstein Kiel 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.