SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome Hannover 96 to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hannover 96 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% versus Hannover 96 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | Hannover 96 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.82 xG and Hannover 96 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.440 / defence 1.240 | Hannover 96 attack 0.748 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.373. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 10 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 47% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 24%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Hannover 96 4.17. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 80% | Hannover 96 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 47% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.82 / Hannover 96 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.440 / def 1.240 | Hannover 96 attack 0.748 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hannover 96 xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 47% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.44) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.42
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.27
Hannover 96 xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
4%
26.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.27 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 5W 4D 1L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96's form line: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hannover 96.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.70 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hannover 96 in 20%.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Hannover 96 away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 2.20 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 80%, Hannover 96 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 40% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 40%; Hannover 96 in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 20% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 40% of Hannover 96's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat Hannover 96 3-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.82 xG and Hannover 96 1.27 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.44 / defence 1.24 against Hannover 96 attack 0.75 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 47% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 24%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 60%, Hannover 96 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hannover 96's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.