Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Holstein Kiel take on FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC Schalke 04 at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 1.60 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 1 for FC Schalke 04 and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 69% and FC Schalke 04 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 66% | FC Schalke 04 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 0.99 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.827 / defence 0.924 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.785 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.345. FC Schalke 04's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Holstein Kiel games / 55 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 33% | Draw 34% | FC Schalke 04 32%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | FC Schalke 04 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | FC Schalke 04 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 33% | Draw 34% | FC Schalke 04 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Holstein Kiel 0.99 / FC Schalke 04 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.827 / def 0.924 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.785 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
0.97
FC Schalke 04 xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 33% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Record (5 meetings): Holstein Kiel 3W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.83) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.90
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
1.96
0.97
FC Schalke 04 xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 0.97 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 12W 13D 30L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 22W 12D 21L from 55 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Schalke 04 are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Holstein Kiel.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (8W 4D 15L).
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 13D 30L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
FC Schalke 04's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.04 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 56%, FC Schalke 04 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Holstein Kiel) and 44% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 30% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 41% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Holstein Kiel's recent games and 44% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat Holstein Kiel 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 0.99 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.97 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.79 / defence 0.80, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 33% | Draw 34% | FC Schalke 04 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 66%, FC Schalke 04 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.