Hertha BSC 5-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 69% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hertha BSC welcome FC Schalke 04 to Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Schalke 04 — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.30 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Hertha BSC's games and 60% of FC Schalke 04's (from Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Hertha BSC hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Hertha BSC 2–1 FC Schalke 04 — a Hertha BSC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Hertha BSC and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 68% and FC Schalke 04 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 64% | FC Schalke 04 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.56 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.212 / defence 1.086 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.729 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.397. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 1.418 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hertha BSC's projected output up. FC Schalke 04's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 25 games and FC Schalke 04's last 25.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 69% | Draw 17% | FC Schalke 04 14%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.45 | Draw 5.93 | FC Schalke 04 6.96. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (69%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.56 / 1.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 69% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Hertha BSC 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 69% | Draw 17% | FC Schalke 04 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Hertha BSC 2.56 / FC Schalke 04 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.212 / def 1.086 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.729 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Schalke 04 xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04?
Hertha BSC 5 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 69% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.21x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 25 games and FC Schalke 04's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.93
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.67
1.11
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.93
17%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
8%
12.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
1%
90.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.11 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 16W 15D 28L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 16W 13D 30L from 59 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.07 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 10D 9L).
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 6D 19L from their last 29 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.27 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Hertha BSC (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 16W 13D 30L in their last 59 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.38 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from January 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Jan 2021, when Hertha BSC won Hertha BSC 3-0 FC Schalke 04.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 5, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Hertha BSC 0-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 66%, FC Schalke 04 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hertha BSC and 59% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Hertha BSC's games and 48% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hertha BSC's matches and 59% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 66% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat FC Schalke 04 5-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.56 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.11 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.21 / defence 1.09 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.73 / defence 1.42, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 69% | Draw 17% | FC Schalke 04 14%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 64%, FC Schalke 04 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.07 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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