Hansa Rostock 0-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hansa Rostock (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 52% versus SC Paderborn 07 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 50% | SC Paderborn 07 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.910 / defence 0.858 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.950 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.291. Data: 44 Hansa Rostock games / 44 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 43% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 27%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | SC Paderborn 07 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 43% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.37 / SC Paderborn 07 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.910 / def 0.858 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.950 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 43% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 2 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.91) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.95x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.32
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.05 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 14W 12D 18L from 44 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 12L across 44 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.59 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 7W 5D 9L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 10W 6D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.86 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 61%.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.24 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 57%, SC Paderborn 07 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hansa Rostock) and 62% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 33% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hansa Rostock's games and 57% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hansa Rostock 0-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 43% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 27%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 50%, SC Paderborn 07 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.23 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.