Hansa Rostock 0-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Hansa Rostock welcome Hannover 96 to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hansa Rostock at 1.30 PPG versus Hannover 96's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hannover 96 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 61% versus Hannover 96 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 61% | Hannover 96 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.34 xG and Hannover 96 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.813 / defence 1.285 | Hannover 96 attack 0.728 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.318. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Hansa Rostock games / 18 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 32%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Hannover 96 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 88% | Hannover 96 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.34 / Hannover 96 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.813 / def 1.285 | Hannover 96 attack 0.728 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hannover 96 xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 37% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Hannover 96 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.15
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Hannover 96 xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.23 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 5W 5D 8L from 18 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 8L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.11 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.78 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.00 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2021, when Hansa Rostock won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
4
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Hannover 96 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 88%, Hannover 96 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hansa Rostock and 62% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Hansa Rostock's games and 38% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 62% of Hannover 96's.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hannover 96 defy the odds to beat Hansa Rostock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat Hansa Rostock 0-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.34 xG and Hannover 96 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hansa Rostock fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.81 / defence 1.28 against Hannover 96 attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 32%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 61%, Hannover 96 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hannover 96's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.11 PPG, Hannover 96 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.