Hansa Rostock 2-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ostseestadion this season.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hansa Rostock 1.40 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 30% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 36% | Eintracht Braunschweig 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.78 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.865 / defence 1.153 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.940 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.354. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Hansa Rostock games / 33 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 45% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 32%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.12. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 45% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.78 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.865 / def 1.153 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.940 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 45% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Braunschweig's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.36
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.25
1.47
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.47 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 11W 5D 17L from 33 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 15L across 33 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 5W 1D 10L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 2W 6D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.24 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig in 64%.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 11W 5D 17L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.00 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hansa Rostock have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 31%, Eintracht Braunschweig 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Hansa Rostock) and 62% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 75% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 62% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.78 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.47 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 45% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 32%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 36%, Eintracht Braunschweig 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.