Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hansa Rostock face 1. FC Magdeburg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Current Form

Hansa Rostock's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Hansa Rostock 2–1 1. FC Magdeburg — a Hansa Rostock win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 38% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | 1. FC Magdeburg 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.60 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.929 / defence 1.089 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.683 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.338. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 63 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 63.

Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 50% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 1.98 | Draw 3.73 | 1. FC Magdeburg 4.41. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 50% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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