Hannover 96 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hannover 96's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hannover 96 lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 47% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 53% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.14 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.933 / defence 0.820 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.941 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.289. Data: 49 Hannover 96 games / 49 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 38% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 31%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 38% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Hannover 96 1.14 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.933 / def 0.820 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.941 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hannover 96 2 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 38% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): Hannover 96 0W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 0.93x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.94x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
38%
2.61
31%
3.25
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.13
0.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 0.99 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Hannover 96 have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 12D 19L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Hannover 96 against 1.43 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hannover 96 have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.58 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Hannover 96 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
6
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hannover 96 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 42%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hannover 96) and 46% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hannover 96's recent games and 46% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.14 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 38% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 31%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 53%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.35 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.