Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hamburger SV face Fortuna Düsseldorf.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.60 (Fortuna Düsseldorf). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hamburger SV's games and 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's (from Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Hamburger SV have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Hamburger SV 3–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a Hamburger SV win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 62% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 64% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hamburger SV surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.79 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.376 / defence 0.859 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.130 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.275. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack rating of 1.376 — their 1.79 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 58 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 58.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.05 | Draw 3.81 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.00. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 60% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.79 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.376 / def 0.859 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.130 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV 4 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 49% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.38x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 58 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.81
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.02
1.24
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
4%
23.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.24 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 16D 14L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.72 PPG from 58 outings (28W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.72 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 17W 6D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.93 points per game from their last 28 away games (15W 9D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.98 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.04 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hamburger SV have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 78% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 54%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hamburger SV and 61% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hamburger SV's games and 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hamburger SV's matches and 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 79% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.79 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.24 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.38 / defence 0.86 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 64%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.72 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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