Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 2D 3L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 3 for Holstein Kiel and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Holstein Kiel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and Holstein Kiel 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | Holstein Kiel 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.81 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.902 / defence 1.174 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.963 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.303. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 28 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 30%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Holstein Kiel 3.33. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | Holstein Kiel 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.81 / Holstein Kiel 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.902 / def 1.174 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.963 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Holstein Kiel xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 45% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
Record (7 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W | Draws 2 | Holstein Kiel 3W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.90x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.99
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.29
1.47
Holstein Kiel xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
5%
20.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.47 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 15D 24L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 0.87 PPG from 62 outings (13W 15D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (5W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.34 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 69%.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 15D 24L in their last 62 games (1.35 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 13W 15D 34L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.42 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Holstein Kiel have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 55%, Holstein Kiel at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 71% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 81% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 71% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.81 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, Holstein Kiel 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.