Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome Hansa Rostock to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hansa Rostock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus Hansa Rostock 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% | Hansa Rostock 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.021 / defence 0.959 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.032 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.416. Data: 28 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 28 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 30% | Hansa Rostock 35%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Hansa Rostock 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Hansa Rostock 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 30% | Hansa Rostock 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 / Hansa Rostock 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.021 / def 0.959 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.032 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Hansa Rostock xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 35% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.80
1.40
Hansa Rostock xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.40 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 9D 11L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.18 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 4W 5D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.57 points per game from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.29 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.21 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 71%, Hansa Rostock 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 57% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 50% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 57% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.40 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.03 / defence 1.20, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 30% | Hansa Rostock 35%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 46%, Hansa Rostock 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.