Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees 1. FC Magdeburg travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Merkur Spiel-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.30 (1. FC Magdeburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 53% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% | 1. FC Magdeburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.05 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.108 / defence 0.929 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.951 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.302. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 17 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Magdeburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | 1. FC Magdeburg 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.05 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.108 / def 0.929 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.951 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 58% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.11x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
58%
1.74
22%
4.48
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.20
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
13%
7.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
38.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.15 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 8W 2D 7L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 5W 2D 10L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Magdeburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fortuna Düsseldorf are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.18 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 8W 2D 7L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 75% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.05 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 20%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, 1. FC Magdeburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.