FC St. Pauli 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Millerntor-Stadion to take on FC St. Pauli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 4W 0D 0L from 4 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. SSV Jahn Regensburg's 3.00 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of FC St. Pauli's 1.75 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 50% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 75% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.329 / defence 1.098 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.104 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.312. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 FC St. Pauli games / 4 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 32% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 32% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.21 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.329 / def 1.098 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.104 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.59
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 26% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-W-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
26%
3.91
32%
3.15
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.80
1.59
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
5%
19.16
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.59 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 3.00 scored and 0.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 25%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have FC St. Pauli or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC St. Pauli and 75% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 75% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.59 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.33 / defence 1.10 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 32% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 75%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.75. Form was overturned, with FC St. Pauli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.